Planning a successful steelhead trip starts with data, not hope. The anglers who consistently hook chrome are reading hydrographs, tracking water temperature, monitoring turbidity, and timing their trips around falling rivers and fresh fish counts. This guide breaks down the exact data-driven decision framework used by experienced Pacific Northwest steelheaders -- and how to apply it before every trip.
The Five Data Points That Determine Your Trip
Before you load the truck, you need answers to five questions. Every experienced steelheader runs through this checklist -- consciously or not -- before committing to a river.
1. CFS or Gage Height. Cubic feet per second (CFS) measures how much water is moving through a given point. Gage height measures the river's water level in feet. Either metric tells you whether the river is fishable, blown out, or too low. Every river has its own optimal range.
2. Water Temperature. Steelhead are cold-water fish with specific metabolic windows. Temperature determines whether fish are actively moving, holding and willing to bite, or sluggish and locked down. This is the single most overlooked data point among casual steelheaders.
3. Turbidity and Clarity. How much can you see into the water? Measured in NTU (nephelometric turbidity units) at gage stations or estimated visually in inches of visibility on the river, clarity dictates what techniques will work and whether fish can find your presentation.
4. Hydrograph Trend. Is the river rising, peaking, or falling? The direction matters as much as the number. A river at 3,000 CFS and dropping fishes entirely differently than the same river at 3,000 CFS and climbing.
5. Weather Forecast. What is coming in the next 24 to 72 hours? A clear forecast after recent rain means you are likely fishing into improving conditions. Another atmospheric river stacking up behind the one that just passed means your window may be shorter than you think.
Get definitive answers on all five, and you can make a high-confidence decision about where and when to go.
Step 1 -- Check the Hydrograph and Find the Drop
The USGS hydrograph is your single most important trip-planning tool. It plots river flow (CFS) or gage height over time, giving you both the current reading and -- more importantly -- the trend.
When a storm dumps rain on a watershed, the river rises. Fish respond to this rise -- a freshette carries the scent of tributaries and gravel downstream, signaling steelhead to push upstream. But during the peak of a flood event, the river is typically unfishable: too fast, too muddy, too dangerous.
The productive window opens as the river drops. Here is the timing framework:
- Day of rain: River rising. Generally unfishable.
- Day after rain stops: River peaks or begins to fall. May still be too high and muddy, but fish are on the move.
- 1 to 3 days after rain stops: The prime window. The river is falling, clarity is improving, and fish that pushed upstream during the freshette are settling into holding water. This is when you want to be on the river.
- 4 to 7 days after rain: River is approaching baseline. Clarity is good, but fish have distributed and had time to see every presentation from every angler who was on the water before you.
How to read it practically: Pull up the USGS hydrograph for your target river. Look at the 7-day or 14-day view. Identify the most recent peak. If the current reading shows a steady downward slope and the river is approaching roughly 150% of its seasonal average, you are looking at a strong fishing window.
Compare the current flow to the historical median, which most USGS station pages display as a shaded range. If the river is above median but trending down, conditions are favorable. If it is still climbing or sitting well above the historical range, wait.
One critical detail: Many rivers have multiple USGS gage stations. The station near the headwaters may show different conditions than the station near the mouth. Always check the gage closest to the section you plan to fish.
Step 2 -- Match the Flow to Your River
Not all rivers fish the same at the same CFS. A flow of 2,000 CFS on the Sandy is a very different river than 2,000 CFS on the Skagit. Every river has its own fishable range based on channel width, gradient, and structure.
Here is a reference table for popular PNW steelhead rivers:
| River | Optimal Flow Range | Measurement | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cowlitz (WA) | 1,800 -- 7,500 CFS | CFS | Wide channel handles high water well |
| Sandy (OR) | ~1,000 CFS | CFS | Smaller river, blows out fast |
| Skagit (WA) | 2,000 -- 9,000 CFS | CFS | Large system, fishable across a wide range |
| Wilson (OR) | 4.2 -- 4.8 ft | Gage height | Coastal river, use gage height here |
| Hoh (WA) | 1,500 -- 4,000 CFS | CFS | Olympic Peninsula glacier-fed; clarity varies |
| Skykomish (WA) | 2,000 -- 8,000 CFS | CFS | Multiple forks; check the fork you are fishing |
| Deschutes (OR) | 4,000 -- 6,000 CFS | CFS | Tailwater; more stable flows year-round |
| Yakima (WA) | 1,500 -- 3,500 CFS | CFS | Highly regulated by dam releases |
How to use this table: Check the current CFS or gage height against the optimal range. If the river is within range and falling, you are in business. If it is above the range but dropping, estimate when it will enter the zone -- that is your trip date. If it is below the range, the river may be too low and clear for productive steelheading; pressured fish in skinny water are the hardest fish in the Pacific Northwest.
These ranges are starting points. Over time, you will dial in your own preferred flows for your home rivers. Some anglers prefer the upper end of the range when they are side drifting from a boat. Others prefer the lower end for wade fishing with bobber and jig. Your technique preferences influence your ideal number within the range.
Step 3 -- Check Water Temperature and Clarity
Temperature and clarity are the biological gatekeepers. The river can be at perfect flow, but if the water is 34 degrees and chocolate milk, you are in for a long day.
Water Temperature Thresholds
Steelhead are ectothermic -- their metabolism is governed by water temperature. Here is what the numbers mean:
- Below 38 F: Fish are extremely lethargic. Metabolic activity is minimal. Bites are rare and often very subtle. Most experienced anglers wait for warmer conditions.
- 38 to 40 F: Fish are present but sluggish. Slow, deep presentations required. Early morning can be painfully slow; the bite often improves from late morning into afternoon as water warms even a degree or two.
- 40 to 52 F: The prime zone for winter steelhead. Fish are active, willing to move for presentations, and feeding aggressively enough to hit a well-presented offering. This is your target window.
- 52 to 58 F: Ideal for summer steelhead. Winter fish can become less active at the upper end of this range, but summer-run fish are in their metabolic sweet spot.
- Above 58 F: Steelhead begin to stress. Catch-and-release mortality increases significantly. Responsible anglers avoid targeting steelhead in warm water.
The practical takeaway: Check the water temperature at the nearest USGS gage before you leave. If it is below 40 F, plan to fish the warmest part of the day (11 AM to 3 PM) when temps peak. If it is in the 40 to 52 F range, fish dawn to dusk with confidence.
Clarity Assessment
Turbidity determines whether fish can see your presentation and, critically, what techniques will be effective.
- 0 to 6 inches visibility: Unfishable for most techniques. The river is blown out. Wait.
- 8 to 18 inches visibility: The productive zone. Fish cannot see anglers well, reducing spookiness, but can detect presentations. This is the turbidity range where steelhead fishing is at its best. The water often appears green or milky-green.
- 18 to 36 inches visibility: Fishable, but fish are more wary. Lighter leaders, more natural presentations, and stealthier approaches are needed.
- 36+ inches visibility: Gin-clear. Fish can see you before you see them. Very challenging steelheading. Low light periods (dawn, dusk, overcast) become critical.
If your gage station reports turbidity in NTU, values between 10 and 50 NTU generally correspond to that productive 8 to 18 inch visibility range, though this varies by river and substrate type.
The green water rule: If the river looks green or milky-green, fish it. If it looks brown, wait. If it looks like tap water, fish it carefully and early.
Step 4 -- Time the Run Using Fish Counts and Hatchery Data
Knowing the river is in shape is half the equation. The other half is knowing fish are in the river. You can have perfect conditions on an empty river.
Fish Count Resources
Columbia Basin: The Fish Passage Center (FPC) and DART (Data Access in Real Time) at Columbia Basin Research provide daily fish counts at every dam on the Columbia and Snake systems. These counts tell you exactly how many steelhead are passing Bonneville, The Dalles, McNary, and other dams. When counts spike at Bonneville, you know fresh fish are entering the lower Columbia tributaries. When they spike at dams further upstream, those fish are distributing into upper basin rivers.
ODFW and WDFW reports: Both Oregon and Washington publish weekly or biweekly fish count summaries and run updates. ODFW's Recreation Report and WDFW's fishing reports include catch estimates, hatchery trap counts, and run timing updates for major rivers.
Hatchery returns data: Hatcheries report how many fish have returned to the facility. This is lagging data -- by the time fish reach the hatchery, they have already passed through the fishable sections of the river.
The Timing Trick
Hatchery return data is your friend, but you need to read it correctly. When a hatchery reports a surge in returns, those fish passed through the lower and middle river sections one to two weeks earlier. So when you see a hatchery report showing strong returns, subtract one to two weeks -- that tells you when the fishing was hot in the driftable sections below the hatchery.
More importantly, runs tend to pulse. If a hatchery shows an increasing trend, the next pulse is likely coming. Combine this with a weather forecast showing rain in three to five days, and you can plan a trip that intercepts fresh fish during ideal water conditions.
Putting Count Data and River Data Together
The strongest signal is when fish counts show an active run AND river conditions are entering the optimal window. Fresh steelhead pushing into a river that is dropping from a recent rain event with water temperatures in the 40 to 52 F range and clearing to green visibility -- that is the convergence that produces memorable days.
Step 5 -- Pick Your Technique Based on Conditions
River conditions should dictate your technique, not the other way around. Too many anglers show up committed to one method regardless of what the river is doing. The data you have collected tells you what to rig.
High Water (Upper End of Optimal Range or Above)
When the river is running high and pushing hard:
- Drift fishing with heavier weight gets your presentation into the strike zone in fast, deep water. Size up to 3/0 or 4/0 hooks.
- Side drifting from a boat covers water efficiently and keeps your offering in the zone longer.
- Heavier weight and larger presentations. In high, turbid water, fish need to find your bait. Go bigger.
- Back-bouncing plugs or bait in deep slots where fish hold out of the main current.
Low Water (Lower End of Optimal Range or Below)
When the river is running low and clear:
- Bobber dogging and float fishing allow precise, stealthy presentations over fish that are wary in shallow conditions.
- Jigs under a float, worked slowly through holding water, are deadly in low, clear conditions.
- Lighter leaders and smaller presentations. Drop to 8 or 10 pound fluorocarbon. Downsize your offerings.
- Fish early and late. Low-light periods are your friend when the river is skinny.
Dirty Water Adjustments
When visibility drops below 12 inches but the river is still fishable:
- Big and bright or big and dark. Steelhead need contrast to find your presentation. Bright pinks, oranges, and chartreuse in dark water. Alternatively, solid black or dark purple creates a strong silhouette.
- Add scent. Shrimp oil, anise, sardine wraps -- anything that gives fish a secondary sensory cue beyond vision. Scent becomes critical when visibility is limited.
- Slow your presentation. Fish in dirty water need more time to locate and commit to your offering. Slower drifts, longer pauses, deeper swings.
The System Approach -- Monitor Multiple Rivers at Once
The anglers who consistently find fish are not committed to one river. They are monitoring five to ten rivers simultaneously and going to whichever one is fishing best on any given weekend.
This is the "system approach" to steelhead fishing, and it is arguably the single biggest difference between anglers who catch fish regularly and those who struggle.
Why it works: Pacific Northwest weather does not affect all watersheds equally. A rain event might blow out the Skykomish while the Hoh is just entering its prime window. The Sandy might be too low while the Cowlitz is perfect. Coastal rivers react to rain faster and clear faster than Cascade rivers fed by snowmelt. Olympic Peninsula rivers carry glacial silt that affects clarity differently than rain-fed coastal streams.
How to implement it:
- Build your watch list. Pick five to ten rivers across different watersheds and rain zones. Include a mix of coastal rivers, Cascade foothills rivers, and at least one larger system like the Cowlitz or Skagit.
- Check all of them, not just your favorite. Wednesday evening, scan the hydrographs for all rivers on your list. Which ones are in their optimal range? Which ones are dropping into the window?
- Cross-reference with fish counts. Which rivers in your list are currently receiving fish? Eliminate rivers with no active run from consideration.
- Make your call Thursday or Friday. By then you have 48 to 72 hours of hydrograph trend data, a current weather forecast, and updated fish counts. Pick the river that shows the best convergence of conditions.
- Have a backup. Conditions change. If your primary river blows out overnight from unexpected rain, having a second option already scouted saves the trip.
The system approach requires more homework during the week, but it fundamentally changes your success rate. You stop being an angler who fishes one river regardless of conditions and become an angler who fishes the best available water every time out.
How DriftLine Streamlines Your Trip Planning
Everything described above -- the multi-river monitoring, the hydrograph reading, the flow comparison, the trend analysis -- is exactly what DriftLine was built to do.
Multi-river dashboard. Add every river on your watch list to DriftLine and see current conditions at a glance. CFS, gage height, temperature, and trend arrows for all your rivers on a single screen. No toggling between ten browser tabs on the USGS site.
Interactive flow charts. DriftLine plots the hydrograph with the historical median overlay, so you can immediately see whether current flows are above, below, or at the seasonal average. Pinch, zoom, and scroll through 7-day and 14-day views to identify the shape of the drop.
Threshold alerts. Set a CFS or gage height threshold for any river, and DriftLine notifies you when conditions enter your optimal range. Instead of checking every morning, let the data come to you. Your phone buzzes when the Hoh drops below 4,000 CFS -- and you start packing.
Station-level data. For rivers with multiple gage stations, DriftLine shows each station separately with its own chart and current readings. Check conditions at the station closest to your fishing section without guessing which gage is reporting what.
Derived metrics. DriftLine calculates rate of change, percent of normal, and trend analysis automatically. You do not need to eyeball the hydrograph and estimate -- the numbers are right there.
DriftLine does not replace your judgment or your experience on the water. It gives you the same data the most dialed-in steelheaders are already using, organized so you can make the call faster and with more confidence.
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the best time to fish for steelhead?
For winter steelhead in the Pacific Northwest, the core season runs from late November through March, with peak fishing typically in December through February. Summer steelhead fishing peaks from June through October, depending on the river system. Within any given week, the best day is determined by river conditions -- specifically, a falling river one to three days after a rain event, with water temperatures in the optimal range.
How do I know if a river is fishable for steelhead?
Check three things: flow (CFS or gage height) is within the river's optimal range, the water is green or milky-green (not brown), and temperature is above 38 F. If all three conditions are met and the river is on a falling trend, it is fishable. If the water looks like chocolate milk or the flow is double the upper end of the optimal range, wait.
What CFS is best for steelhead fishing?
It depends entirely on the river. The Sandy fishes well around 1,000 CFS, while the Skagit can fish well at 9,000 CFS. There is no universal "best CFS." Learn the optimal range for each river you fish and target conditions within that range on a falling hydrograph.
How do I check fish counts for steelhead runs?
For Columbia Basin rivers, use the Fish Passage Center (FPC) website or the DART database from Columbia Basin Research, which provides daily dam counts. For individual rivers, check ODFW and WDFW weekly fishing reports and hatchery return summaries. Dam counts tell you fish are in the system; hatchery returns tell you fish have already passed through the fishable water.
Should I fish a rising or falling river for steelhead?
Fish a falling river. A rising river means conditions are deteriorating -- increasing turbidity, faster flows, and potentially dangerous wading. A falling river means conditions are improving hour by hour. Fish pushed upstream during the rise are settling into holding water as the river drops, and clarity improves steadily. The ideal scenario is a river at roughly 150% of its seasonal average and trending down.
What water temperature do steelhead prefer?
Winter steelhead are most active between 40 and 52 F. Below 38 F, fish become lethargic and bites are rare. Summer steelhead fish best between 52 and 58 F. Above 58 F, steelhead experience physiological stress, and responsible anglers should avoid targeting them. Even a one or two degree increase during the day can turn on a morning bite that started slow.
How many rivers should I monitor for steelhead?
Five to ten is the sweet spot for most anglers. Fewer than five limits your options when conditions are marginal. More than ten becomes difficult to track meaningfully. Choose rivers across different watersheds and elevations so that weather events create varied conditions, giving you options regardless of what the storms are doing.
Should I log my own fishing conditions data?
Absolutely. Over time, your personal log becomes your most valuable resource. Record the river, date, CFS, gage height, water temperature, visibility estimate, weather, technique, and result for every trip. After two or three seasons, patterns emerge that no general guide can provide. You will know that your home river fishes best at 2,400 CFS and 44 F with 14 inches of visibility -- because you have the data to prove it.
Conclusion
The best steelheaders do not get lucky. They get informed.
Every chrome fish landed starts with a decision made days before the angler ever touched the water -- a decision based on hydrograph trends, temperature thresholds, clarity readings, fish count data, and the discipline to go where conditions are best rather than where habit pulls them.
The data is freely available. The framework is straightforward: check the five data points, find the falling river, match the flow to the river, confirm fish are present, and pick your technique accordingly. The anglers who build this into their weekly routine -- monitoring multiple rivers, watching for the convergence of optimal conditions, and acting when the window opens -- are the ones who make steelheading look easy.
It is not easy. But it is systematic. And systems beat luck every time.