What Is a Hunt Forecast System?
Most hunters operate on a simple model: pick a weekend, drive to the unit, hope for the best. Some of them kill animals. Most of them spend a lot of gas money hiking through empty timber wondering where everything went.
A hunt forecast system replaces hope with probability. It is a structured approach to answering two questions before you leave the truck: when will game be moving, and where will they be when they do?
The concept is straightforward. Game movement is not random. Deer, elk, and upland birds respond to environmental variables in predictable ways — temperature shifts, pressure changes, wind, light levels, thermal currents, and food availability. None of these variables alone is a reliable predictor. But when you layer them together, patterns emerge that are consistent enough to plan around.
Think of it like reading water on a river. No single feature tells you where the fish are. But a seam line below a riffle, next to a depth change, with overhead cover and the right water temperature — that confluence of factors is where you drop your fly. Hunt forecasting works the same way, just with different variables.
The layers that matter:
- Weather intelligence — temperature swings, frontal passages, barometric pressure, wind, precipitation
- Moon phase and solunar timing — daily feeding windows and monthly intensity cycles
- Terrain and thermal patterns — where animals will be at specific times based on air movement
- Draw odds and unit selection — the strategic layer that determines where you can hunt in the first place
- Historical harvest data — what has actually happened in a unit over the last five years
Each layer narrows the field. Stack them all, and you go from "somewhere in this drainage" to "this bench, at this hour, on this day."
Layer 1 — Weather Intelligence
Weather is the single most influential short-term driver of game movement. Get this layer right and you can salvage a hunt in a mediocre unit. Get it wrong and the best unit in the state will look empty.
Temperature Drops and Cold Fronts
The trigger that moves animals more than anything else is a sharp temperature drop. A swing of 10 degrees or more within 24 to 48 hours — particularly the first significant cold front of the season — will push deer and elk onto their feet during daylight hours. This is not folklore. It is observable, repeatable, and well-documented by biologists and experienced hunters alike.
The mechanism is partly metabolic. Ungulates need to feed more in cold weather to maintain body temperature. But it is also behavioral. A sudden weather change disrupts the pattern animals have settled into during stable conditions. They get up, they move, they feed in windows they would otherwise spend bedded.
The key window is the 12 to 24 hours immediately following the front's passage. Not during the front — when rain or snow is hammering down, most animals are hunkered in heavy cover. But as the system clears and that cold, high-pressure air settles in behind it, movement spikes. Clear skies, dropping temperatures, calm wind. That is the window.
Barometric Pressure — Science vs. Tradition
Traditional hunting wisdom says rising barometric pressure between 29.90 and 30.30 inHg is the sweet spot for game movement. You will hear this repeated in every hunting camp in the country. And there is enough correlation to make it worth tracking.
But the research tells a more nuanced story. Studies out of Mississippi State University's Deer Lab found that temperature changes were a stronger predictor of deer movement than barometric pressure alone. Pressure and temperature are correlated — a cold front brings both a pressure rise and a temperature drop — so it can be difficult to isolate which variable is actually driving the behavior.
The practical takeaway: track pressure because it helps you identify frontal passages and weather transitions. But do not fixate on the barometer reading in isolation. A rising barometer after a front is meaningful because of what it represents — clearing skies and colder air — not necessarily because of the pressure number itself.
Wind Speed and Direction
Wind affects both animal behavior and your ability to hunt effectively. Deer and elk rely heavily on their noses. Sustained winds above 15 to 20 mph make scent detection unreliable for them, which can actually increase daytime movement — they compensate by moving more to visually assess their surroundings.
But heavy wind also makes them nervous and pushes them into sheltered terrain — lee sides of ridges, thick timber, canyon bottoms. Understanding prevailing wind patterns in your unit lets you predict where animals will concentrate during high-wind events and, critically, how to approach without getting winded.
Precipitation Timing
Light rain or snow often increases movement. Heavy, sustained precipitation shuts it down. The transition period — the last hour of rain before clearing, or the first hour after it stops — is frequently the best hunting window in any weather event. Animals that have been bedded through a storm will be on their feet and feeding almost immediately after it passes.
Layer 2 — Moon Phase and Solunar Windows
Solunar theory is the most debated layer in any forecast system. Some hunters swear by it. Others dismiss it entirely. The data sits somewhere in the middle: there is enough correlation to make it worth tracking, but it is not a standalone predictor.
The Four Daily Feeding Windows
Solunar tables identify four feeding periods each day based on the moon's position relative to your location:
- Two major periods — roughly 2 hours each, occurring when the moon is directly overhead (transit) or directly underfoot (opposite transit)
- Two minor periods — roughly 1 hour each, occurring at moonrise and moonset
These windows shift by approximately 50 minutes each day as the moon's schedule advances. During major periods, trail camera data consistently shows elevated activity — not every day, but often enough to plan around when other variables align.
Monthly Intensity Cycles
The new moon and full moon phases produce the strongest solunar effects. During these phases, the major and minor periods tend to coincide with dawn and dusk, amplifying the natural crepuscular movement patterns that ungulates already follow. The days immediately surrounding the new and full moon — roughly three days on either side — are the highest-intensity windows in the monthly cycle.
The Overlay Principle
Solunar data becomes powerful when you overlay it with weather. A major solunar period that falls during the post-frontal clearing window described in Layer 1 is a fundamentally different opportunity than the same solunar period during stable, warm, bluebird conditions. When the moon says "move" and the weather says "move," animals move. When only one variable is favorable, the effect is muted.
Check your solunar tables against the 10-day weather forecast. When you see a major feeding period aligning with a cold front passage, adjust your schedule. That convergence is worth burning a vacation day.
Layer 3 — Terrain and Thermal Timing
Knowing when animals will move is only half the equation. You need to know where they will be at a specific time, and that requires understanding thermal wind patterns and terrain features.
The Thermal Cycle
Every mountain drainage follows a predictable daily wind pattern driven by solar heating:
- Morning (dawn to mid-morning): Cool air sinks downhill. Thermals flow from ridgelines into valleys. Animals feeding in high basins and on upper benches will have their scent carried downslope. Hunt high in the morning — position yourself above where you expect animals to be, and your scent moves away from them.
- Transition (10:00 to 11:00 AM): As the sun heats valley floors, thermals reverse. This transition period is chaotic and swirling. Animals often bed down during this window because scent detection becomes unreliable for them too. It is generally the worst time to be moving through a drainage.
- Afternoon/Evening (midday through last light): Warm air rises uphill. Thermals flow from valleys toward ridgelines. Animals feeding in lower meadows and creek bottoms will scent-check with rising air. Hunt low in the evening — position yourself below bedding areas and let thermals carry your scent downhill behind you.
- Last light (final 30 to 45 minutes): The highest-percentage window of the day for many hunters. Thermals are beginning to shift back to a downhill pattern, animals are moving from bedding to feeding areas, and light conditions favor the hunter over the hunted. If you can only hunt one window, hunt the last 45 minutes of legal shooting light.
E-Scouting Terrain Features
After you have selected a unit (Layer 4), use topographic maps to identify high-percentage terrain features before you set foot in the field:
- Saddles and passes — natural funnels between drainages. Animals use these to move between basins with minimal energy expenditure. A saddle between a known bedding ridge and a feeding meadow is a textbook ambush point.
- Benches — flat or gently sloped shelves on otherwise steep terrain. These are preferred bedding areas, especially on north-facing slopes with timber cover.
- Water sources — springs, seeps, and small creeks in otherwise dry country. In early season or dry years, water concentrates animals dramatically.
- Timber transitions — edges where thick timber meets openings, burns, or meadows. The edge itself is where animals feel comfortable stepping into the open. Set up where you can see the edge, not the middle of the opening.
- Elevation bands — identify the elevation where habitat transitions occur in your unit. The transition from mixed conifer to subalpine, or from oak brush to dark timber, often concentrates animals in a narrow vertical band.
Layer 4 — Draw Odds and Unit Selection
For controlled hunt states like Oregon and Washington, your forecast system is irrelevant if you cannot get a tag. Draw odds analysis is the strategic foundation that determines where you will hunt, sometimes years before the hunt itself.
Understanding the Application System
Oregon uses a 75/25 preference point system for most controlled hunts: 75 percent of tags go to applicants with the highest preference points, and 25 percent are awarded through a random draw regardless of point level. This structure creates two distinct strategies.
ODFW publishes point summary reports showing exactly how many applicants are at each point level for every hunt. These reports are publicly available and contain the raw data you need to calculate your actual draw odds. Washington's system works differently but publishes similar data through WDFW.
The 5-Year Trend Analysis
Do not look at a single year's draw odds in isolation. Pull five years of data and look for trends:
- Application pressure — Is the number of applicants increasing or decreasing for a specific hunt? A unit that required 5 points three years ago but now requires 7 is trending harder. A unit that has held steady at 3 points may be a better near-term investment.
- Tag allocation changes — Has the wildlife agency increased or decreased the number of tags for a unit? More tags with stable applicant numbers means improving odds. Fewer tags means the opposite.
- Point creep — In many western states, the number of points needed for premium units increases by roughly one point every one to two years. Factor this into your timeline.
Building a Multi-Year Portfolio
Smart applicants treat the draw like an investment portfolio with three tiers:
- Short-term (this year or next): Apply for units where your current point level gives you reasonable odds. Look at the 25-percent random draw pool — units with lower total applicants give you better random-draw odds regardless of points.
- Intermediate (3 to 5 years): Identify units where you will be competitive in a few point-accumulation cycles. These are your building positions.
- Long-term (5+ years): The premium, once-in-a-lifetime units. Start accumulating points now, apply in the maximum-point pool, and plan for the eventual payoff.
The Probability Math
Here is the concept that changes how most hunters think about applications: if you apply for 10 different hunts across multiple states, each with a 4 percent draw probability, your odds of drawing at least one of them is not 4 percent. It is approximately 33 percent. The math is 1 minus 0.96 to the 10th power. Diversifying your applications across multiple states and species dramatically improves your overall probability of holding a tag somewhere each fall.
Layer 5 — Historical Harvest Data and Unit Selection
Once you have a tag — or a short list of over-the-counter units — historical harvest data tells you what has actually happened in that country.
Unit Harvest Trends
State agencies publish annual harvest reports broken down by unit. Pull five years and look at:
- Harvest totals — Are total animals harvested trending up, down, or flat? An improving harvest trend often reflects improving habitat, population growth, or both.
- Success rates — What percentage of tag holders actually filled their tags? A unit with a 30-percent success rate is a fundamentally different hunt than one with 8 percent. But also look at the trend — a unit that dropped from 25 percent to 15 percent over five years is declining, even if 15 percent still looks reasonable on paper.
- Hunter density — Total hunters in the unit divided by the unit's huntable acreage gives you a rough pressure metric. Lower pressure generally means better quality hunting, even if total harvest numbers are lower.
- Weapon type breakdowns — Archery, muzzleloader, and rifle seasons produce different success rates and hunter densities. Make sure you are comparing apples to apples.
Timing Windows from Historical Data
For fishing, hatchery return data provides a direct analog to this concept. Hatchery reports document when adult fish return to specific facilities. The practical rule: subtract one to two weeks from hatchery report dates to estimate when the bulk of the run was passing through the lower river fishable water. The fish counted at the hatchery today were in the tidewater reach one to two weeks ago. Work backward from the data to time your effort.
For hunting, harvest data often shows clear peaks within a season. If 60 percent of the harvest in a unit occurs during the first week of rifle season, that tells you something about animal vulnerability and hunter pressure dynamics. If harvest spikes during the rut in early November, that tells you when to prioritize that unit over others.
Stacking the Variables — When Everything Aligns
The hunters who consistently fill tags are not luckier than everyone else. They are better at recognizing when multiple favorable variables align, and they prioritize those windows above all others.
Here is what a high-percentage scenario looks like when you stack the layers:
The setup: Your trail cameras in a controlled-hunt elk unit have been showing a mature bull using a specific saddle between a north-facing bedding bench and an irrigated hay meadow. He moves through the saddle consistently during the last 45 minutes of light, but only on days when the temperature is below 45 degrees.
The forecast: A cold front is arriving Tuesday night. Temperatures will drop 14 degrees by Wednesday morning. The barometer will rise through 30.10 Wednesday afternoon as the system clears. A major solunar period runs from 4:30 to 6:30 PM Wednesday. Sunset is at 5:45 PM.
The decision: You clear your Wednesday afternoon. You are in position above the saddle by 3:30 PM, with thermals carrying your scent downhill behind you into the valley you hiked up from. The cold air has animals on their feet. The solunar window overlaps with the last-light movement period. The trail camera history confirms this animal uses this feature in these conditions.
That is not luck. That is a system.
No single variable in that scenario is a guarantee. The cold front alone does not ensure the bull will be there. The solunar period alone does not predict his route. The trail camera data alone does not account for the weather. But stacked together, those four layers produce a compound probability that is dramatically higher than any single factor. You have moved from "maybe I will see something" to "this is the highest-percentage window I can create."
The best forecasters in hunting and fishing think this way constantly. They are always watching the 10-day forecast, checking solunar tables, reviewing trail camera data, and cross-referencing all of it against what they know about terrain and thermal patterns. When the layers converge, they act. When they do not, they save their energy and their vacation days for a better window.
How RidgeLine Brings It All Together
Building a hunt forecast system from scratch means pulling data from a half-dozen sources, cross-referencing it manually, and trying to hold all the variables in your head at once. It works, but it is slow, and most people do not have the time to do it consistently.
RidgeLine was built to solve that problem. The platform integrates real-time weather tracking — temperature trends, barometric pressure, wind speed and direction — alongside moon phase data and solunar feeding windows into a single interface designed for hunting and fishing decisions. Instead of checking a weather app, a solunar app, and a map app separately, you see how the variables interact in one view.
Pressure trend charts show you frontal passages at a glance. Wind overlays on topo maps let you plan approach routes based on real-time conditions. Solunar windows are displayed alongside weather data so you can immediately identify when the layers align.
The goal is not to replace field experience. No app can tell you that the big bull beds in the third finger of timber south of the old burn. That knowledge comes from boots on the ground. But RidgeLine can tell you that Wednesday afternoon has a converging set of environmental factors that make it worth being in that third finger of timber, instead of the couch.
Frequently Asked Questions
How do I predict when deer will move?
Track temperature changes and frontal passages as your primary short-term indicators. A temperature drop of 10 degrees or more within 24 to 48 hours is the most reliable movement trigger. Overlay this with solunar major feeding periods and focus on the first and last 90 minutes of daylight. When a cold front clears during a major solunar window near dawn or dusk, you have the highest probability of daylight deer movement.
What data matters most for planning a hunt?
Weather is the most impactful short-term variable. Draw odds and unit selection are the most impactful long-term variables. If you can only track one thing, track weather — specifically temperature trends and frontal timing. If you are planning more than a year out, master the draw odds data from your state wildlife agency before anything else.
How do I analyze draw odds for hunting?
Download your state's point summary reports, which show applicant numbers at each preference point level for every controlled hunt. Compare five years of data to identify trends in application pressure and point creep. Calculate your probability based on the number of tags available to your point level versus the number of applicants at that level. For the random-draw pool, divide available random tags by total applicants to get your base probability.
Does barometric pressure really affect deer movement?
The honest answer is that it is complicated. There is correlation between rising pressure in the 29.90 to 30.30 range and increased deer activity. However, research from Mississippi State University suggests that temperature changes may be the stronger driver, and pressure changes often accompany temperature changes during frontal passages. Track barometric pressure as an indicator of weather transitions rather than as a standalone predictor.
How do I use trail camera data to build a forecast?
Log every trail camera hit with the date, time, temperature, wind direction, moon phase, and barometric pressure. After one to two seasons, you will have enough data to identify which conditions correlate with activity at each camera location. This turns generic forecast advice into location-specific intelligence. A pattern like "mature buck appears at this scrape when temperatures drop below 40 degrees during the last hour of light" is worth more than any app prediction.
What is the best app for hunting forecasts?
Tools like HuntWise's HuntCast combine 50 or more environmental factors for hour-by-hour movement predictions and are worth evaluating. RidgeLine integrates weather data, pressure trends, wind conditions, and solunar timing into a single platform built specifically for Pacific Northwest hunters and anglers. The best app is the one that gives you the data you will actually check and act on consistently.
How do I build a multi-year draw strategy?
Treat your applications like an investment portfolio. Apply for units you can realistically draw this year or next as your short-term positions. Identify units you will be competitive for in three to five years as intermediate targets. Start accumulating points for premium units as long-term investments. Diversify across multiple states and species — applying for 10 hunts with 4 percent individual odds gives you roughly a 33 percent chance of drawing at least one. Review and adjust your strategy annually as point creep and tag allocations change.
How far in advance should I start watching weather for a hunt?
Begin monitoring the 10-day forecast as soon as it covers your hunt dates. Forecasts beyond seven days are increasingly unreliable, but they can identify large-scale patterns like approaching cold fronts. At five days out, you should have a reasonable read on frontal timing. At two to three days, the forecast is reliable enough to make specific plans around. The key is watching for trends and transitions, not trying to predict exact temperatures a week away.
Conclusion
A hunt forecast system is not a crystal ball. No amount of data will guarantee that a bull elk walks through your shooting lane at last light. But data changes the math. It shifts you from random chance to calculated probability, from hope to informed decision-making.
The framework is simple, even if the execution takes practice: layer weather intelligence over solunar timing, map both onto terrain and thermal patterns, and apply all of it within units you selected through careful draw odds and harvest data analysis. Each layer narrows the window. Stacked together, they give you a compound advantage that accumulates over seasons and years.
Start with one layer. Track weather and frontal passages for a full season. Then add solunar data the following year. Then build your draw strategy. The hunters who consistently find animals are not doing anything magical — they are just paying closer attention to the data that the mountains and the animals have been providing all along.